Analysis of the factors predicting clinical response to tocilizumab therapy in patients with severe COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: Controversy remains about the efficacy of tocilizumab (TCZ) for the treatment of severe COVID-19. We aimed to analyze the profile of TCZ-respondent patients. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed a cohort of patients with severe COVID-19 who received off-label TCZ after recommendation by a local committee and were admitted to the University Hospital "12 de Octubre" until May 2020. The primary end point was a significant clinical improvement (SCI) on day 14 after administration of TCZ. Factors independently related to SCI were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression models. RESULTS: Of 428 (63.3%) patients treated with TCZ, 271 (63.3%) experienced SCI. After adjustment for factors related to unfavorable outcomes, TCZ administration within the first 48 hours from admission (odds ratio [OR]: 1.98, 95% confidence Interval [95% CI]: 1.1-3.55; P = 0.02) and ALT levels >100 UI/L at day 0 (OR: 3.28; 95% CI: 1.3-8.1; P = 0.01) were independently related to SCI. The rate of SCI significantly decreased according to the time of TCZ administration: 70.2% in the first 48 hours from admission, 58.5% on days 3-7, and 45.1% after day 7 (P = 0.03 and P = 0.001, respectively). CONCLUSION: TCZ improves the prognosis of patients with COVID-19 the most if treatment starts within the first 48 hours after admission.

The importance of association of comorbidities on COVID-19 outcomes: a machine learning approach.

BACKGROUND: The individual influence of a variety of comorbidities on COVID-19 patient outcomes has already been analyzed in previous works in an isolated way. We aim to determine if different associations of diseases influence the outcomes of inpatients with COVID-19. METHODS: Retrospective cohort multicenter study based on clinical practice. Data were taken from the SEMI-COVID-19 Registry, which includes most consecutive patients with confirmed COVID-19 hospitalized and discharged in Spain. Two machine learning algorithms were applied in order to classify comorbidities and patients (Random Forest -RF algorithm, and Gaussian mixed model by clustering -GMM-). The primary endpoint was a composite of either, all-cause death or intensive care unit admission during the period of hospitalization. The sample was randomly divided into training and test sets to determine the most important comorbidities related to the primary endpoint, grow several clusters with these comorbidities based on discriminant analysis and GMM, and compare these clusters. RESULTS: A total of 16,455 inpatients (57.4% women and 42.6% men) were analyzed. According to the RF algorithm, the most important comorbidities were heart failure/atrial fibrillation (HF/AF), vascular diseases, and neurodegenerative diseases. There were six clusters: three included patients who met the primary endpoint (clusters 4, 5, and 6) and three included patients who did not (clusters 1, 2, and 3). Patients with HF/AF, vascular diseases, and neurodegenerative diseases were distributed among clusters 3, 4 and 5. Patients in cluster 5 also had kidney, liver, and acid peptic diseases as well as a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; it was the cluster with the worst prognosis. CONCLUSION: The interplay of several comorbidities may affect the outcome and complications of inpatients with COVID-19.

Longitudinal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2-specific cellular and humoral immunity after natural infection or BNT162b2 vaccination.

The timing of the development of specific adaptive immunity after natural SARS-CoV-2 infection, and its relevance in clinical outcome, has not been characterized in depth. Description of the long-term maintenance of both cellular and humoral responses elicited by real-world anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is still scarce. Here we aimed to understand the development of optimal protective responses after SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination. We performed an early, longitudinal study of S1-, M- and N-specific IFN-γ and IL-2 T cell immunity and anti-S total and neutralizing antibodies in 88 mild, moderate or severe acute COVID-19 patients. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2-specific adaptive immunity was also analysed in 234 COVID-19 recovered subjects, 28 uninfected BNT162b2-vaccinees and 30 uninfected healthy controls. Upon natural infection, cellular and humoral responses were early and coordinated in mild patients, while weak and inconsistent in severe patients. The S1-specific cellular response measured at hospital arrival was an independent predictive factor against severity. In COVID-19 recovered patients, four to seven months post-infection, cellular immunity was maintained but antibodies and neutralization capacity declined. Finally, a robust Th1-driven immune response was developed in uninfected BNT162b2-vaccinees. Three months post-vaccination, the cellular response was comparable, while the humoral response was consistently stronger, to that measured in COVID-19 recovered patients. Thus, measurement of both humoral and cellular responses provides information on prognosis and protection from infection, which may add value for individual and public health recommendations.

Tocilizumab for the treatment of adult patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia: A single-center cohort study.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can lead to a massive cytokine release. The use of the anti-interleukin-6 receptor monoclonal antibody tocilizumab (TCZ) has been proposed in this hyperinflammatory phase, although supporting evidence is limited. We retrospectively analyzed 88 consecutive patients with COVID-19 pneumonia that received at least one dose of intravenous TCZ in our institution between 16 and 27 March 2020. Clinical status from day 0 (first TCZ dose) through day 14 was assessed by a 6-point ordinal scale. The primary outcome was clinical improvement (hospital discharge and/or a decrease of ≥2 points on the 6-point scale) by day 7. Secondary outcomes included clinical improvement by day 14 and dynamics of vital signs and laboratory values. Rates of clinical improvement by days 7 and 14 were 44.3% (39/88) and 73.9% (65/88). Previous or concomitant receipt of subcutaneous interferon-ß (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 0.23; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.06-0.94; P = .041) and serum lactate dehydrogenase more than 450 U/L at day 0 (aOR: 0.25; 95% CI: 0.06-0.99; P = .048) were negatively associated with clinical improvement by day 7. All-cause mortality was 6.8% (6/88). Body temperature and respiratory and cardiac rates significantly decreased by day 1 compared to day 0. Lymphocyte count and pulse oximetry oxygen saturation/FiO2 ratio increased by days 3 and 5, whereas C-reactive protein levels dropped by day 2. There were no TCZ-attributable adverse events. In this observational single-center study, TCZ appeared to be useful and safe as immunomodulatory therapy for severe COVID-19 pneumonia.

A predictive score at admission for respiratory failure among hospitalized patients with confirmed 2019 Coronavirus Disease: a simple tool for a complex problem.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has implacably stricken on the wellness of many countries and their health-care systems. The aim of the present study is to analyze the clinical characteristics of the initial wave of patients with COVID-19 attended in our center, and to identify the key variables predicting the development of respiratory failure. Prospective design study with concurrent data retrieval from automated medical records of all hospitalized adult patients who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) rRT-PCR assay performed on respiratory samples from March 2nd to 18th, 2020. Patients were followed up to May 1st, 2020 or death. Respiratory failure was defined as a PaO2/FiO2 ratio ≤ 200 mm Hg or the need for mechanical ventilation (either non-invasive positive pressure ventilation or invasive mechanical ventilation). We included 521 patients of whom 416 (81%) had abnormal Chest X-ray on admission. Median age was 64.6 ± 18.2 years. One hundred eighty-one (34.7%) developed respiratory failure after a median time from onset of symptoms of 9 days (IQR 6-11). In-hospital mortality was 23.8% (124/521). The modeling process concluded into a logistic regression multivariable analysis and a predictive score at admission. Age, peripheral pulse oximetry, lymphocyte count, lactate dehydrogenase and C-reactive protein were the selected variables. The model has a good discriminative capacity with an area under the ROC curve of 0.85 (0.82-0.88). The application of a simple and reliable score at admission seems to be a useful tool to predict respiratory failure in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

Combination therapy with tocilizumab and corticosteroids for aged patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia: A single-center retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: The role of combination immunomodulatory therapy with systemic corticosteroids and tocilizumab (TCZ) for aged patients with COVID-19-associated cytokine release syndrome remains unclear. METHODS: A retrospective single-center study was conducted on consecutive patients aged ≥65 years who developed severe COVID-19 between 03 March and 01 May 2020 and were treated with corticosteroids at various doses (methylprednisolone 0.5mg/kg/12h to 250mg/24h), either alone (CS group) or associated with intravenous tocilizumab (400-600mg, one to three doses) (CS-TCZ group). The primary outcome was all-cause mortality by day +14, whereas secondary outcomes included mortality by day +28 and clinical improvement (discharge and/or a ≥2 point decrease on a 6-point ordinal scale) by day +14. Propensity score (PS)-based adjustment and inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTW) were applied. RESULTS: Totals of 181 and 80 patients were included in the CS and CS-TCZ groups, respectively. All-cause 14-day mortality was lower in the CS-TCZ group, both in the PS-adjusted (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.34; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.17-0.68; P=0.002) and IPTW-weighted models (odds ratio [OR]: 0.38; 95% CI: 0.21-0.68; P=0.001). This protective effect was also observed for 28-day mortality (PS-adjusted HR: 0.38; 95% CI: 0.21-0.72; P=0.003). Clinical improvement by day +14 was higher in the CS-TCZ group with IPTW analysis only (OR: 2.26; 95% CI: 1.49-3.41; P<0.001). The occurrence of secondary infection was similar between both groups. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of corticosteroids and TCZ was associated with better outcomes among patients aged ≥65 years with severe COVID-19.

Effectiveness of anakinra for tocilizumab-refractory severe COVID-19: A single-centre retrospective comparative study.

OBJECTIVES: A subgroup of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection was thought to have developed cytokine release syndrome and were treated with tocilizumab; however, a significant percentage of patients evolved. This study aimed to determine the usefulness of anakinra as a rescue treatment for patients with tocilizumab-refractory COVID-19 disease. METHODS: A prospective cohort of patients with COVID-19 pneumonia who received anakinra as salvage therapy after failure of tocilizumab were compared (1:1) with selected controls in a historical cohort of patients treated with tocilizumab. Cases and controls were matched by age, comorbidities, pulse oximetry oxygen saturation to fraction of inspired oxygen (SpO2/FiO2) ratio at baseline, and time elapsed since the initiation of treatment with tocilizumab. The primary outcome was the improvement in clinical status measured by a 6-point ordinal scale, from baseline to day 21. RESULTS: The study included 20 cases and 20 controls (mean age 65.3 ± 12.8 years, 65% males). No differences were found in the clinical improvement rates at 7, 14 and 21 days of follow-up. The in-hospital mortality rate for patients receiving anakinra was 55% vs. 45% in the control group (P = 0.527). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with anakinra was not useful in improving the prognosis of patients with tocilizumab-refractory severe COVID-19.

Clinical Characteristics and Prognosis of COPD Patients Hospitalized with SARS-CoV-2.

Objective: To describe the characteristics and prognosis of patients with COPD admitted to the hospital due to SARS-CoV-2 infection. Methods: The SEMI-COVID registry is an ongoing retrospective cohort comprising consecutive COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Spain since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020. Data on demographics, clinical characteristics, comorbidities, laboratory tests, radiology, treatment, and progress are collected. Patients with COPD were selected and compared to patients without COPD. Factors associated with a poor prognosis were analyzed. Results: Of the 10,420 patients included in the SEMI-COVID registry as of May 21, 2020, 746 (7.16%) had a diagnosis of COPD. Patients with COPD are older than those without COPD (77 years vs 68 years) and more frequently male. They have more comorbidities (hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, ischemic heart disease, peripheral vascular disease, kidney failure) and a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index (2 vs 1, p<0.001). The mortality rate in COPD patients was 38.3% compared to 19.2% in patients without COPD (p<0.001). Male sex, a history of hypertension, heart failure, moderate-severe chronic kidney disease, presence of cerebrovascular disease with sequelae, degenerative neurological disease, dementia, functional dependence, and a higher Charlson Comorbidity Index have been associated with increased mortality due to COVID-19 in COPD patients. Survival was higher among patients with COPD who were treated with hydroxychloroquine (87.1% vs 74.9%, p<0.001) and with macrolides (57.9% vs 50%, p<0.037). Neither prone positioning nor non-invasive mechanical ventilation, high-flow nasal cannula, or invasive mechanical ventilation were associated with a better prognosis. Conclusion: COPD patients admitted to the hospital with SARS-CoV-2 infection have more severe disease and a worse prognosis than non-COPD patients.

Impact of viral load at admission on the development of respiratory failure in hospitalized patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The aim of our study was to elucidate if SARS-CoV-2 viral load on admission, measured by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) cycle threshold (Ct) value on nasopharyngeal samples, was a marker of disease severity. All hospitalized adult patients with a diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection by rRT-PCR performed on a nasopharingeal sample from March 1 to March 18 in our institution were included. The study population was divided according to the Ct value obtained upon admission in patients with high viral load (Ct < 25), intermediate viral load (Ct: 25-30) and low viral load (Ct > 30). Demographic, clinical and laboratory variables of the different groups were analyzed to assess the influence of viral load on the development of respiratory failure during admission. Overall, 455 sequential patients were included. The median Ct value was 28 (IQR: 24-32). One hundred and thirty patients (28.6%) had a high viral load, 175 (38.5%) an intermediate viral load and 150 (33%) a low viral load. Advanced age, male sex, presence of cardiovascular disease and laboratory markers such as lactate dehydrogenase, lymphocyte count and C-reactive protein, as well as a high viral load on admission, were predictive of respiratory failure. A Ct value < 25 was associated with a higher risk of respiratory failure during admission (OR: 2.99, 95%IC: 1.57-5.69). SARS-CoV-2 viral load, measured through the Ct value on admission, is a valuable tool to predict the development of respiratory failure in COVID-19 inpatients.